On October 13, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced a new update on the World Economic Outlook 2020. Accordingly, Vietnam continues to be the only country in Southeast Asia. It is forecasted to have positive growth this year, at 1.6% and by 2021 it will reach 6.7%.
In addition, the IMF revised its 2020 GDP growth forecast for the Philippines from -3.6% in June to -8.3%. This makes the Philippines the country with the deepest projected GDP decline this year among ASEAN-5 countries. Followed by Thailand with -7.1%; Malaysia with -6% and Indonesia with -1.5%.
IMF forecasts that in 2020, Vietnam’s economy will rank 4th in Southeast Asia, surpassing Singapore and Malaysia. Specifically, Vietnam’s GDP in 2020 is estimated to reach 340.6 billion USD, exceeding Singapore with 337.5 billion USD; Malaysia with 336.3 billion USD. Meanwhile, Thailand’s GDP this year will reach 509.2 billion USD; Philippines 367.4 billion USD; Indonesia is 1,088.8 billion USD.
For GDP per capita, the IMF forecasts that Vietnam’s GDP per capita is ranked 6th in ASEAN, reaching 3,497 USD / person by 2020, ahead of the Philippines (3,372 USD / person), Laos (2,567 USD / person), Cambodia (1,572 USD / person). USD / person) and Myanmar (1,332 USD / person).
Overall, the average growth forecast for ASEAN-5 member countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam) will decrease by 3.4%, emerging and developing Asian countries. will decrease by 1.7%.
China continues to be the only major economy expected to grow, reaching 1.9% this year and up to 8.2% by 2021. India will face the strongest decline, down 10.3% this year.
For the United States, the IMF forecasts that the country’s GDP in 2020 will decrease by 4.3%. The economies of France, Italy, UK and Spain are forecast to decrease by about 10%. For Europe, the figure is 8.3%. Globally, the IMF revised its GDP forecast to fall 4.4% in 2020, to 5.2% by 2021.
According to the IMF, these figures are based on the assumption that countries will continue to apply social gap measures until 2021 and by the end of 2022, global community infections will decrease.
IMF’s chief economist, Gita Gopinath, said: “The forecast for the global economic recession in 2020 this time is not as serious as reported in June. However, there will be a long time until the pandemic The world’s economies will face many challenges in order to recover from the pre-Covid-19 pandemic.